The African quartet in El Alamein: Messages amid Ethiopian escalation

The 8th Mid-Year Coordination Meeting of the African Union (Source: Official Spokesperson for the Presidency of the Republic's Facebook page)

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi during his reception of Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in the Egyptian city of El Alamein (social media)

Mohammed Khayal

Published On 4/10/20264/10/2026

Last updated: 23:28 (Mecca time)Last updated: 23:28 (Mecca time)

Cairo - At a highly sensitive time for the Horn of Africa region, the four-way summit that brought together the leaders of Egypt , Sudan , Somalia and Eritrea in the Egyptian city of El Alamein on Sunday sent political messages that go beyond consultations between four countries whose interests and security intersect in a highly turbulent region.

Reading the statement issued by the summit reveals that the four leaders sought to put a range of regional issues on one table; from the unity and sovereignty of Sudan, to supporting the Somali state and rejecting any infringement on its territorial integrity, to the security of the Red Sea and freedom of navigation, and the issue of the Nile waters, at a time when relations between the four countries and Ethiopia are witnessing escalating tension.

These messages are of particular importance in light of repeated Ethiopian accusations against Egypt, Sudan and Eritrea of supporting armed groups opposed to the federal government in Addis Ababa, coinciding with the continuation of Egyptian-Ethiopian disputes over the Renaissance Dam, and Ethiopia’s efforts to obtain a sea outlet on the Red Sea.

While the summit avoided directly accusing Addis Ababa , its emphasis on respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states, rejecting interference in their internal affairs, and rejecting any unilateral actions affecting the existing water uses of the Nile Basin countries, as well as stressing that the governance of the Red Sea is the exclusive responsibility of the riparian states, appear to be clear political messages in the midst of a regional conflict in which security, water, ports and influence are intertwined.

In this context, Dr. Amani Al-Tawil, Director of the African Program at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, says that the joint statement of the El Alamein Summit reflected the magnitude of the dangers that the four countries are facing, in light of the escalating regional crises and the repercussions of the internal Ethiopian war, the effects of which have extended to neighboring countries.

She adds to Al Jazeera Net that the summit placed the threats surrounding the Red Sea and international navigation within the circle of common concern, in parallel with the Ethiopian moves to obtain a sea outlet, noting that the overlap of these issues made it necessary for the four countries to look for a common vision to deal with the rapid transformations in the region.

Al-Taweel believes that the importance of the summit is not limited to the content of its statement, but rather to its ability to translate the positions contained therein into political and diplomatic actions, especially since the Horn of Africa region - in her estimation - faces intertwined threats whose continuation without effective regional interventions may lead to further instability.

Regarding the Nile water issue, Al-Taweel explained that the statement featured clearer language, emphasizing respect for international law and the principle of not causing harm, and rejecting unilateral actions that harm the existing water uses of the downstream countries.

Al-Taweel believes that unifying the positions of Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia on these issues is a necessary step in confronting what she considers Ethiopian violations of the rules for managing transboundary rivers.

suitable settlement

In this context, Ahmed Al-Awadi, head of the Defense and National Security Committee in the Egyptian House of Representatives, believes that the El Alamein summit carries political and diplomatic messages, the meaning of which is that the four countries will not stand idly by in the face of Ethiopian claims that, according to his assessment, contribute to increasing the intensity of conflicts and unrest in the Horn of Africa region, as well as exacerbating disputes with Egypt without reaching a settlement to the Renaissance Dam crisis.

Al-Awadi pointed out in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that Ethiopia is trying to drag Egypt’s name into the internal disputes it is witnessing, stressing that Cairo adopts a firm principle based on non-interference in the internal affairs of countries, whether in neighboring countries, within the African continent or outside it.

Al-Awadi points out that Ethiopia’s attempt to present its internal crisis as a result of foreign interventions will not contribute to solving its problems, but may exacerbate them, adding that the solution currently lies in returning to the negotiating table between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia to reach a suitable settlement for the Renaissance Dam crisis.

President Sisi (right) during his meeting with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (social media)

common interest

Ambassador Ayman Zein El-Din, former Deputy Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs of Egypt and former Egyptian Ambassador to Spain, believes that the meeting between the leaders of the four countries carries a clear message that Egypt shares the three countries’ interest and concern regarding the development of the situation in the Horn of Africa region, the need for stability in the region during the coming period, and preventing external interference that increases the region’s instability.

The former Deputy Assistant Foreign Minister of Egypt, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, ruled out the possibility of Egyptian-Ethiopian disputes entering a stage of direct military confrontation or clash in the coming period, because Egypt generally does not readily resort to force in external crises and disputes, but always seeks to resolve them politically and diplomatically, and Ethiopia is not in the interest or able to use military force against Egypt.

However, Zein El-Din stressed that Egypt does not rule out - in principle - any option to protect its interests and rights to the waters of the Nile River, but it always seeks to resolve any crisis through negotiation and diplomacy.

He added that Ethiopia’s recognition of Egypt’s rights to the Nile waters would be enough to end the crisis, saying, “Egypt is always ready to negotiate, and if Ethiopia takes one step towards a political solution to the crisis, Egypt will take two steps in the same direction, because Egypt considers Ethiopia a sisterly African country and a partner in the Nile River, and the relations between them are eternal, regardless of the existing dispute due to the current government’s positions towards the Nile River,” as he put it.

President Sisi (right) during his meeting with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki (Social Media)

Towards a common position

Major General Dr. Ahmed Farouk, advisor to the National Center for Studies and regional security expert, confirmed that the disturbances and disputes currently taking place in Ethiopia are due to internal crises, and are not the result of external interference from neighboring countries or from Egypt, which adopts a position rejecting interference in the internal affairs of countries, according to him.

Farouk, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, ruled out Egypt resorting to military escalation against Ethiopia in the coming period to resolve the Renaissance Dam crisis, noting that resorting to the United Nations and international organizations will remain one of the paths that Egypt can rely on in dealing with the existing crisis with Ethiopia.

He added that the convening of the El Alamein summit comes in the context of discussing ways to deal with current developments and to reach a common position among the four countries.

Excluding the military option

Professor of Political Science and Regional Security Expert Major General Dr. Ahmed El-Shahat believes that holding the quadrilateral summit in El Alamein comes at an appropriate time, given the need to coordinate positions regarding the repeated Ethiopian claims, which, according to his assessment, would increase the severity of the unrest and worsen the situation in the Horn of Africa region in the coming period.

Al-Shahat believes that the current data in the region does not indicate a trend towards the military option to resolve the crisis, despite the escalation of diplomatic tension in Egyptian-Ethiopian relations during the recent period.

The military expert stressed that Egyptian pressure on Ethiopia will continue at the international and regional levels, and through the Security Council and international organizations.

Source: Al Jazeera

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The African quartet in El Alamein: Messages amid Ethiopian escalation

The African quartet in El Alamein: Messages amid Ethiopian escalation

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