Date: Friday, 26 December 2025
Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, left, is welcomed by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed at Addis Ababa International Airport, Ethiopia, July 14, 2018 (AP photo by Mulugeta Ayene).The disputes between the two countries continued, with former Ethiopian President Mulatu Teshome accusing Eritrea last February of seeking to reignite the conflict and supporting rebels in northern Ethiopia.
Since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, relations with Ethiopia have been tense and turbulent, reaching the point of war between 1998 and 2000. It only stopped after a peace agreement was signed in 2018 between Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopian president, and Isaias Afwerki, the Eritrean president.
But the honeymoon between the two countries was short-lived, as tensions resurfaced after Ethiopia signed the Pretoria Peace Agreement with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) without consulting its allies in the two-year war (2020-2022). Tensions escalated further after Ethiopia announced its desire for access to the Red Sea, with Asmara accusing it of coveting the Eritrean port of Assab.
Ethiopia, through its Ministry of Foreign Affairs, accused Eritrea and a hardline faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) of "funding, mobilizing, and leading" armed groups, particularly in the Amhara region, in a letter addressed to the United Nations. The letter stated that "the collusion between Asmara and the hardline faction has become increasingly evident in recent months, and they are actively preparing to wage war against Ethiopia."
Eritrea ignored the accusations leveled against it by the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry, and the Eritrean Ministry of Information responded last June that “Ethiopia is using lies to justify and ignite the conflict,” after the Eritrean president accused Addis Ababa last May of “seeking to destabilize the region under slogans related to access to the Red Sea,” coinciding with statements by the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s National Security Advisor, Qena Yedita, in which he reiterated the need for his country to obtain a sea outlet.
Military and strategic expert Major General Mutasim Abdel Ghaffar told Al-Taghyeer that tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia undoubtedly affect Sudan, just as the situation in Sudan affects both Ethiopia and Eritrea. He added that most of the recent changes in both countries were influenced by Sudan, given its open borders with both, particularly regarding military movements. If either country's forces attempt to circumvent the other, they will do so via the Sudanese border.
The military expert believes that Ethiopia is in no position to wage any war in the region, whether it be supporting the Rapid Support Forces on the Blue Nile State border with Sudan, or the troop buildup on the Ethiopian-Eritrean border. Ethiopia cannot afford to do so because it faces internal problems in more than seven volatile regions, including Oromo, Tigray, Amhara, the Ogaden region, Afar, and the Benishangul-Gumuz areas.
He said that any attempts by Ethiopia to influence the situation in Sudan or Eritrea would have repercussions on the Ethiopian interior, and thus would affect political stability in Ethiopia.
He pointed out that the Sudanese government did not intervene in the 1989 conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, nor did it intervene in the recent conflict between the opposition in the Tigray region and the government. On the contrary, the Sudanese government had harassed refugees from both countries over the past decades, due to drought, desertification, or wars between the two neighboring nations.
He said that the issue between the two countries so far does not go beyond threats, especially from the Ethiopian side, that it will obtain a port in the Red Sea by any means, and this is what is fueling the conflict and is extremely dangerous.
He pointed out that another issue is the tension created by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in the region, and Ethiopia's lack of cooperation with Sudan and Egypt. Ethiopia has been opening the dam, causing devastating floods in Sudan and Egypt, and significant damage to agricultural lands in both countries.
He added that if these issues are not resolved, they will increase tension in the region. He continued that there is significant rapprochement between Eritrea, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan on one hand, and relations between Ethiopia, the UAE, and other countries on the other, concentrated in the form of alliances or coalitions in the region. If this positive cooperation is not pursued, the threats to the region will be substantial, potentially leading to an explosion of violence.
He added, "I believe the situation is still under control, and there is still an opportunity to overcome the tensions and threats." For his part, Dr. Abdul Rahman Abu Khreis, a professor of international relations at Sudanese universities,
believes that the tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea stem from a lack of trust between the two countries dating back to before Eritrea's secession in 1993. In a statement to Al-Taghyeer, Abu Khreis said that the secession did not end the war between the two countries until Algeria intervened in 2000, which brought an end to the conflict by demarcating the border and establishing an agreement to regulate relations between them. He added that despite the agreement, tensions and mistrust persisted, prompting Saudi Arabia to intervene and broker the Jeddah Agreement between the two countries in 2018.
He pointed out that the current tensions underscore the enduring mistrust between the two countries throughout their history. He explained that Ethiopia's ambitions to gain access to the sea, coupled with President Abiy Ahmed's clear statements that he will not accept this situation and is determined to secure a sea outlet at any cost, are delaying economic and political agreements between the two nations. He noted that this poses a significant threat to Eritrea, given its extensive Red Sea coastline, and could potentially escalate the conflict.
He stated that Ethiopia had exhausted diplomatic avenues to gain access to the Red Sea via Somalia, resorting instead to threats of force to secure a Red Sea outlet. Abu Khreis suggested that a solution lay in establishing a new mechanism for integration between the two countries and entering into an agreement that would avert another war in the Horn of Africa.
For his part, Dr. Mohammed Torshin, an expert on African affairs, believes that the tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea could lead the region to another war, especially given the significant disagreements between the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments. The Ethiopian government accuses the Eritrean government of supporting the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), and there are also accusations that Ethiopia supports Eritrean opposition factions.
He told Al-Tagheer that the improvement following President Abiy Ahmed's visit to Eritrea was temporary, and that the participation of Eritrean army units in the Tigray conflict did not strengthen bilateral relations. He indicated that the situation was volatile.
He said that the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea threatens to open a new front on the border with Sudan, and its repercussions will be significant on the economy, infrastructure, and resources, especially since Sudan is suffering from war and there is a disruption in the functioning of state institutions.
Torshin concluded that there are security, social, economic, and political repercussions, and that the Horn of Africa region will remain in a state of continued turmoil and instability. The wars in Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia are still internal, meaning that the political ramifications will be significant and will have a profound impact on the security and stability of the Horn of Africa.
