Date: Monday, 15 September 2025
The Super Eagles’ chances of reaching the 2026 FIFA World Cup remain slim but not entirely closed, following developments linked to Eritrea’s withdrawal from the CAF qualification campaign. FIFA and CAF may implement an adjustment that could affect how the best second placed teams are ranked across the nine groups, giving Nigeria a potential lifeline.
Eritrea pulled out of the qualifiers before the qualifiers began. As a result, Group E (which includes Morocco, Zambia, Congo, Tanzania, and Niger) is now contested by only five active teams. This left Group E with fewer fixtures compared to the other groups that still have six teams.
To address this imbalance, FIFA may apply an adjustment commonly used in past qualification formats: excluding results against the bottom placed team in each group when calculating the best second-placed teams. This ensures fairness when comparing runners up across groups with unequal numbers of matches.
Nine group winners (from Groups A to I) will automatically qualify for the 2026 World Cup.
The four best second placed teams across all groups will advance to a CAF playoff.
1. Winning Group C outright (automatic qualification), which the Super Eagles ain’t in a position to finish top of the group.
2. Finishing second and ranking among the four best runners up (playoff route).
Nigeria currently trail South Africa in Group C and has dropped crucial points in early fixtures. Securing top spot now looks unlikely unless South Africa falters in upcoming games (thats very slim) . This leaves the runner up route as the most feasible option. Despite that,Nigerians Who known to pray in situations as this will have to put on their praying garment for Lesotho to sit bottom of the group .
Simon Moses, Samuel Chukwueze and Cyriel Dessers at training on Monday.
PHOTO 2: Chidozie Awaziem leads at training.
PHOTO 3: Players and officials after Monday’s official training at the Toyota Stadium.
Here, Eritrea’s withdrawal could become significant. If FIFA enforces the “bottom team exclusion” rule, the results against the last-placed team in Nigeria’s group (whichever team finishes there) would be discounted. That could reduce distortions caused by heavy wins against weaker opponents.
Potentially thus will make Nigeria’s second place finish more competitive in the cross group comparison for playoff spots.
Basically, heres the fine print: What’s Confirmed vs. What’s Not
Its confirmed that Eritrea officially withdrew.
Group E is now a five team group.
FIFA/CAF rules state four best runners up advance to the playoffs.
However, not fully confirmed (but reported as likely):
That FIFA will definitely exclude results vs. the bottom placed teams in all groups when ranking second-placed sides. The measure has precedent in past tournaments but is yet to be officially published for the CAF 2026 qualifiers.
Nigeria’s World Cup dream is still alive mathematically. Eritrea’s withdrawal has created a scenario where FIFA may adjust the ranking method for second placed teams, potentially giving the Super Eagles a fairer shot at reaching the CAF playoff stage.
However, Nigeria cannot rely solely on regulations. To capitalize on any technical adjustment, the Super Eagles must win their remaining fixtures and secure at least second place in Group C. The door is still open, but it will take both strong performances on the pitch and favorable results off it for Nigeria to keep their World Cup hopes alive.
